Welcome back!

Realizing that it has now been three months since I’ve written my last blog post, I have decided to update again.  Quite honestly, I am planning to write more frequently.  I have been so busy doing short sales in the recent months that I have focused all my attention there and on my family. 

The Tucson real estate market has been alive with activity lately.  It is typical to experience a lot of movement going on during this time of year, but it is still encouraging to see it this year because of how dead some markets are and because of all the negative talk in the media about how terrible things are.  So what is going on?  Here we go.

Home Sales Volume and Home Sales Units

Home Sales Volume and Home Sales Units both increased this month over last month.  Last month (May) showed a 13.5% increase over April and June showed a 14.6% increase over May for sales volume.  However, June is the first month where the Home Sales Units has experienced an increase over the numbers a year ago.  In recent months we have seen improvements month-to-month, but have still been lower than last year.  More units have sold, but will this continue?

Our home sales volume is still showing an increase month to month, but is still nearly 14% below what we saw last year at this time.  This is a result of how low prices are and of how quickly the lower priced  homes are selling.  I have seen a marked increase in first time home-buyers since the $8,000 tax credit was made available.

Median and Average Sales Prices

Over the past couple of months, median sales prices have bounced around a bit.  This is typical because it is dependent on how many units sell in each price range.  For this month, the median sales price is at $165,000, truly a reflection of the short sales and foreclosures that populate our current market. 

The average sales price increased again in June and is currently at about $238,000.  This is a 14.6% increase over last month, but still a 13.5% decrease over last year.  Again, this is to be expected when  you consider which homes are selling fastest (those under $200,000).  However, when this number begins to rise consistently, it will be another indicator that health is returning to our market as homes in all price brackets will begin selling well.

Pending Contracts

If you read my market reports regularly, you know that I focus a lot on pending contracts as an indicator of where are market is headed.  If pending contracts continue to increase while active listings stay the same, then we have a situation where inventory is being cleared.  On the other hand, if pending contracts lag, we may be looking at a market that is slowing.

June’s pending contracts showed a 10% increase over the month before and a whopping 50.6% increase over last June’s numbers!!!  This is really good news.  1,432 homes went pending in June.  It is also noteworthy to see that while pending sales fell off last June, this year they continued to show a strong in crease even over May’s numbers.

Active Listings and New Listings

New listings are still increasing, but the active listings continue to decline.  We are currently (June 2009) at 6,261 for active listings in the Tucson MLS.  This is 1,000 less than we had 3 months ago.  In terms of home supply, we have a 5.5 month supply of homes on the market.  We’re jammin’ folks.  If this continues over the next several months, talk of a bad real estate market in Tucson will be behind us.

On the Streets

As mentioned at the beginning of this blog post, I have been incredibly busy the past 3 months.  Not only have I been working on my short sale listings, but I have been blessed to work with multiple buyers as well.  Speaking with most agents in my office, they have been experiencing an uptick in business as well.  It is still sometimes tedious because of the amount of time that short sales take.  However, they do get approved and people are still buying homes.

How about you?

Technorati Tags: homebuyer tax credit, real estate market, real estate market report, short sale, Short sales, Tucson real estate market, Tucson real estate market report

If I could sum up the Tucson real estate market over the last two months in a single word it would be Stable.  We are not seeing any giant moves in either the positive or negative direction, although we are still slowly reducing our inventory.   Prices are still falling in some areas, although many areas are seeing no more decline.  There are a lot of buyers out there making bids on properties, but more about that later.

I have been so busy working this month that I did not get to do my March market report.  So this time I will refer to both February & March’s numbers compared to both of those months last year.  Of course I am using March’s number because that is the most recent data available.  May’s market report will contain April’s numbers.

Home Sales Volume and Home Sales Units

Home Sales Volume and Home Sales Units both increased in both February and March this year.  This is normal for this time of year.  Overall, our home sales units are just slightly under what they were at this time last year.  That actually represents improvement for our market over the activity a few months ago, which was well below the numbers from the year before.  We won’t really be climbing out of the slump, though, until we start to see home sales units consistently rising above performance from the previous year.

Home sales volume is increasing month over month, but is still below last year’s numbers.  Considering the lower priced homes that are currently on the market, this is not surprising. 

Median and Average Sales Prices

Median and Average Sales Prices went up in February and back down in March.  That seems likely the result of higher priced homes selling in February.  We won’t see a consistent increase in either of these categories until the number of foreclosures has decreased substantially and our market values begin increasing due to the forces of supply and demand.

Pending Contracts

Pending contracts are a major future indicator of where the market will be in the very near future.  For both February and March pending contracts increased.  Again that is to be expected at this time of year and the percentages, 8.4% and 18%, while encouraging, aren’t large enough to indicate a major clearing of inventory.

Active Listings and New Listings

New Listings are increasing while active listings are remaining about the same.  Well, active listings decreased both months by about 1.5%, which is really minimal.  The good news is that we are not adding to our inventory, but we are reducing it by such a small amount each month that we won’t feel much difference in the market.

As of the end of March 2009 we have 7,415 active listings on the market, which leaves us an 8.13 months’ supply of homes at the pace that March’s sales were going.  This is better than the 9.7 month supply we had going on last March (2008) and demonstrates that we have made progress reducing our inventory over the past 12 months.  We will have a pretty robust market when we get the inventory down to between a 3 and 6 month supply.

On the Streets

I have noticed an increase in traffic/offers on my listings over the past 3 weeks especially.  I have also taken several more listings during that time-frame.  With the prevalence of short sales we are experiencing a delay in the numbers matching market activity.  Additionally there are many that fall through so it takes a lot more activity to result in larger sales numbers.  As of right now we’re slow and steady (so much for February’s roller coaster).  Our prices are not spiraling downward as they are in other parts of the country, but we are not seeing any noticeable increases either. 

It’s still a great time to buy, although I don’t know how long we will continue to have these extremely low mortgage rates.

Technorati Tags: current market value, housing market, real estate market, short sale, Short sales, tucson real estate, Tucson real estate market, Tucson real estate market report

A one year contract was approved for the Pima County Sheriff’s Department to install photo enforcement locations or permanent “speed traps”.  The locations of the speed traps are as follows:

• Valencia Road near Wilmot Road 
• Ina Road near Camino de Fosforo
•  Ruthrauff Road near Calle Reina
• 8500 South Nogales Hwy./Hermans Road
• Mission Road near Nebraska St
• Swan Road/South near Calle Barrill
• Valencia Road near Camino De La Tierra 
• Alvernon Way near Stationmaster Drive
• La Cholla Drive near Fountains Avenue
• River Road near Camino Boscaje

The Sherriff’s department will begin by giving people a warning and after 7 days will begin issuing real tickets.  Tickets will be issued for anyone going 11 MPH or more over the posted speed limit.  Initially, the warning period was set to begin on April 2, 2009.  However, that date has been delayed.  The warning period for the following locations will begin on April 13, 2009 with real tickets being given out starting April 20, 2009.

• North La Cholla Boulevard at West Sunset Road
• South Mission Road and West Grubstake Drive
• East Ina Road at North Camino de las Candelas
• East Calle Barril at North Swan Road

The following locations will begin receiving warnings on May 1, 2009 with live tickets being issued starting May 8, 2009.  Tickets will be issued for anyone going 11 MPH or more over the posted speed limit.

• East Valencia Road near South Wilmot Road
• West Ruthrauff Road near West Rillito Street
• West Valencia Road near South Camino de la Tierra
• South Alvernon Way near South Station Master Drive
• East River Road near North Country Club Road
• South Nogales Highway and East Hermans Road

For a Google map of the photo enforcement locations around Tucson please see the following link.  http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=117058165005795302152.000461a71a9252aa21a1c&ll=32.127942,-110.933075&spn=0.811762,1.52298&z=10

Technorati Tags: photo enforcement, pima county sherriff, speed traps, Tucson AZ

This is a quick update to my post, Dear Mr. Negotiator.  I had negotiated a short sale for my seller and had gotten an offer on a home that was $137,500.  This, to me, was an incredibly strong offer because the home needed an extensive amount of fixing up.  It had been occupied by a single mother with a very low income and she had not been able to keep up on the maintenance on the home.

The bank refused the offer I brought them, insisting on another $12,000.  The buyer walked and the bank foreclosed.  They listed the home at $125,000 AFTER already paying fees for the foreclosure.  The house just sold today for $112,000.  So how did they lose $62,000?  Here’s the run-down.

$25,500 – Reduction in purchase price
$30,000 – Legal costs of foreclosure
$ 5,500 – Realtor commissions paid
$ 1,000 – Other closing costs.
$62,000  – GRAND TOTAL

The moral of the story is twofold:  (1) A short sale really is more beneficial to the bank than foreclosure. (2) Banks don’t always do what is in their best interest financially – I think we already had that one figured out though.

Technorati Tags: bank negotiations, banks, foreclosure, negotiation, short sale

There has been a lot of talk about the expansion of Houghton Road on the east side of Tucson.  Plans have been laid, meetings have been held and finally ground is being broken.  Previously, Houghton Road was more of a rural arterial from the east side of Tucson to the Interstate.  About 10-15 years ago homes were built at Rita and Houghton and Rita Ranch was born.  Since then there has been a lot of development and Vail has become large enough to consider becoming its own city; what a far cry from the “outpost” that it used to be.

Traffic on Houghton can get very backed up due to the fact that it is only a two-lane road.  However, plans have been made to turn it into a 4-lane or 6-lane divided parkway.  There will be 6 lanes on the southern portion of the road and 4 lanes at the northern section where there is enough development to preclude creating more than 4 lanes without having to seize private property.

When does the construction start?

Construction is slated to begin in the spring of 2009 with the widening and raising of the intersection at Houghton Road and Mary Ann Cleveland Way.  Here are the improvements that you can expect to see there:

• Reconstructing and widening the existing intersection to accomodate the future widening of Houghton Road.
• Dual left-turn lanes
• Exclusive right-turn lanes
• Upgrading traffic signals

This should be completed by the fall of 2009.

How long will the entire project take?

This project will be ongoing until 2021.  AT the current time, plans have been laid for the construction phases up to and including 2019.  Here are the sections in order of their scheduled work:

1. Houghton Rd & Mary Ann Cleveland Intersection – 2009
2. Irvington Road to Valencia Road – 2010
3. Broadway & Houghton Intersection – 2011
4. Valencia Rd to Mary Ann Cleveland Way – 2011
5. Union Pacific Railroad Bridge – 2012
6. Escalante Rd to Irvington Rd – 2013
7. Speedway Blvd to Broadway Blvd – 2014
8. Broadway Blvd to 22nd St – 2015
9. 22nd St to Escalante Rd – 2016
10. Union Pacific Railroad to I-10 – 2018
11. Tanque Verde Rd to Speedway Blvd – 2019

My thoughts were that #7 and #9 should be switched to provide the smoothest traffic transition possible.  I made that comment at our most recent meeting (2/24/09) and was told that others have raised that same concern.

If you would like more detailed information about the Houghton Road project, please visit www.houghtonroad.info.  I will also continue to update my blog as the process moves forward.

Technorati Tags: 2009 Irvington Road, East Tucson, Houghton Road, Mary Ann Cleveland, Rita Ranch, road construction, road expansion, Tucson AZ, union pacific railroad, union pacific railroad bridge, Vail, Valencia Road

Did you know that we have a new roller coaster ride opening right here in Tucson?  Some have already been riding it and have raved about it’s extreme lifts, fast drops and corners that are taken at break-neck speed.  Interested?  It’s also known as the Tucson Real Estate Market.  While in general it seems to be heading in a positive direction, there is much excitement along the way.

As I discuss the market, I will be comparing this month’s numbers (January 2009) with those from last year (January 2008) and last month (December 2009).  Even though it is now February, we won’t have February’s numbers until mid-March.

Home Sales Volume and Home Sales Units

Home Sales Volume and Home Sales Units both decreased this month over last month.  This is to be expected to a degree because homes that were pending last month are now completing as sales this month.  However, we had fewer homes close than were pending last month.  This is likely due to the fact that so many of the contracts were short sales and they are more likely to fall through than other sales are.  Still, I was surprised that the numbers decreased so sharply.

This month’s Home Sales Units decreased by 24% over last month but only 5% over last year.  The volume decreased by 21% over last month and 26% over last year.  Looking back at the numbers from two months ago (since we had an unexpected jump in sales last month), I am seeing a 9% decrease in sales units and an 11% decrease in sales volume, which is probably more in line with seasonal trends.

The home sales volume/units category is one that we need to keep a very close eye on.  Don’t forget to fasten your seatbelts…

Median and Average Sales Prices

Median and Average Sales Prices continue their decline and will likely continue to do so as foreclosures and short sales continue to hit the market.  This means that there are more deals out there for those who can afford to buy.  However, it also means that lower-priced distressed properties are competing with non-distressed properties for buyers.  That’s not good for sellers who need to sell their homes right now.  The best thing that a seller can do right now is differentiate his/her home from the surrounding “bargain” properties by offering something unique.

Pending Contracts

Pending contracts is the point in our ride where the coaster once again headed straight up.  Pending contracts shot up by 54% over last month, although they are still down by 13% over last year.  It is normal for pending contracts to rise in January because more homebuyers focus on their search after the holiday season is over.  However, this is a little more than usual and could be a good sign if all these Pending contracts make it to closing.  At this point 25% of our pending sales are short sales or foreclosures, which means that they may not all make it to the signing table.  If all the pending sales do close, it will wipe out 12% of our current inventory.  We currently have 941 pending and total active listings of 7,694.

Active Listings and New Listings

Ready for more excitement?  New Listings in January increased by 57% over the new listings in December.  We more than doubled our new listings.  It is very usual for new listings to increase at this time of year.  In fact, January of 2008 experienced a 135% increase over the previous month.  This year, we put a third fewer new listings out at the beginning of the year.  With all the listings that expired, sold, or were taken off the market, our new listings had almost no effect on the amount of Active Listings.  In fact, we saw less than a 1% increase in active listings.  Surely, this is much needed news as we work to clear excess inventory.

As of January 2009 we have 7,694 active listings on the market, which leaves us a 13 months’ supply of homes at the pace that January’s sales were going.  This is much more in line with November’s 12.6 months’ supply and better than the 15 month supply we had going on last January (2008).

Around the Bend

So what’s next?  Only God knows….  Heh heh.  The good news is that our inventory did not dramatically increase in January.  Our pending sales have increased by a huge margin so things are looking up.  However, we have had a lot of ups and downs in the market and I hesitate to give a rosy outlook just yet.  I need to see several months of sustained selling at a good pace before I can declare Tucson’s Housing Market to be on the final stretch of this ride.

I am personally seeing a lot of activity.  Buyers are ready and willing to buy, mortgage rates are low, there is a new $8,000 tax credit for first-timers.  My short sales are for the most part receiving offers on them fairly quickly and the banks are processing them at the slow but steady pace I have come to know and accept. 

Life goes on and I’m ready for the next big curve… 

Technorati Tags: bank negotiations, banks, buying a home, contracts, distressed properties, foreclose, Foreclosures, housing market, pricing strategy, real estate, real estate market report, roller coaster ride, sales volume, seasonal trends, short sale, Short sales, tucson, tucson real estate, Tucson real estate market, Tucson real estate market report

Target.com is opening their fulfillment center in Rita Ranch (Tucson, AZ) and is inviting local people to apply for employment.  They are holding a job fair on February 9, 10, and 11 to take applications and they are also taking them online.  Here is the pertinent information:

Pay:  $12.50/hr to start with progression to $14.75/hr after 2 years

Where:  Target.com Fulfillment Center, 8940 E Rita Park Dr, Tucson, AZ  85747 – This is basically at Rita Road and I-10

When: Monday, February 9, Tuesday, February 10, and Wednesday, February 11 from 10 AM to 7 PM

Phone number to call for more info:  520.344.6000 and select “Option 9″ for more information

To apply online: 

Go to www.target.com/careers prior to attending the job fair

You can apply directly to the Fulfillment Center Team Member position by selecting “hourly” in Distribution Centers link under “Opportunities at Target”.

For more detailed information on what the job entails, requirements, etc, please visit http://www.careerbuilder.com/JobSeeker/Jobs/JobDetails.aspx?job_did=J8F11N6FX1MM95PFZ09&cbRecursionCnt=1&cbsid=81a3795255674186a7ea1a6f5a31d8b2-286996334-TZ-5&ns_siteid=ns_us_g_Target_Fulfillment_Ce_

Technorati Tags: Employment opportunity, Rita Ranch, Target.com, Tucson AZ

Dear Mr. Negotiator,

It was a pleasure working with you recently.  I enjoyed our conversations and our exciting games of phone tag.  It was so much fun anticipating whether or not you would accept the offer that the Buyer brought to your bank.  We had such spirited conversations as I tried to explain the values of the neighboring homes and how much repair work was needed for the home being sold.

If you remember, throughout our relationship I spent hours trying to satisfy your demands.  I took photographs and sent them to you and filled out all the paperwork you requested.  I even managed to get the buyer to come up $2500 on an offer that really was above market value to begin with.  I bent over backwards trying to please you.  I really thought we had something together, but in the end you rejected me.

“Not enough” were your exact words if I remember correctly.  Market value is market value, Darling.  I can’t believe you don’t see that!!  I was on the MLS today and I saw that you’ve listed your home with another agent, and at a cheaper price.  The offer I presented you with was $137,500, but you are now offering your wares to the public at $125,000.  That is so sad.  To think you could have had so much more with me!!  You could have avoided foreclosure costs but you would have none of it.  If you must be stubborn, then go ahead and pay the price.

Quite frankly, I too have moved on.  I found another negotiator who works as a partner with me.  He listens to what I say about market value and seems to have a good head on his shoulders.  Does he give me everything I want?  No, but he is kind and knows how to compromise.  He is very reasonable too.  In fact, we closed our first deal together and you know what?  We BOTH got paid.  Isn’t that how a good relationship is supposed to be?

I do wish you the best with your new agent.  I know she won’t get you as good a deal as I was offering, but then again, some guys don’t know what they had until they lose it. 

I’ll see you around…

Your Realtor

Technorati Tags: Bank negotiater, bank negotiations, short sale, Short sales, Tucson AZ

All these years and it seemed that this day would never come.  Today is my birthday and I’m finally old enough to run for President of the United States.  The problem is that I’m now wise enough to know that I don’t want to run for President!!  I would prefer to stay in a semi-unknown status remaining famous only in my market niche here in Tucson, Arizona.  Seriously, if I was as honest with the American public as I am with my clients, they would either hate me or be in such a state of shock that they wouldn’t know what to do. 

I can see the headline now:  Realtor runs for Office:  Vows to resolve housing crisis.  I hope you’re all having a great day.  Perhaps you’ll see more of me in about 3 years.  LOL

Technorati Tags: birthday, President, Tucson AZ

Well, well, well….  I’ve been a little nervous the last couple of months watching the sales slow here in Tucson.  Our active listings have remained stable, but I was concerned, nonetheless.  We seemed to be on the verge of backwards motion.  However, this month’s numbers, which are really from December 2008 are showing positive movement once again.  That, combined with huge amounts of activity on the ground so far in January, is very encouraging and is causing me to feel hopeful that things may continue in the right direction.

As usual, I will be comparing this month’s numbers (December 2008) with those from last year (December 2007) and last month (November 2008).  Even though it is now January, we won’t have January’s numbers until mid-February.

Home Sales Volume and Home Sales Units

Home Sales Volume and Home Sales Units both increased this month over last month.  That is a surprising step in the right direction considering that December’s sales are usually very slow.  The even better news is that this December saw a higher number of home sales units than last December.  That is the first time I’ve seen this all year and I expect to see more of it in the coming months.

This month’s Home Sales Units increased by 22% over last month and 3% over last year.  The volume increased by 13% over last month, quite a feat considering that lower priced homes are selling (see below).  Home sales volume still decreased from last year by 20%.  However, I am more concerned about the units that are selling.  If the lower priced units go well, then the success will eventually spread upwards as people move up or as investors spread their reach and invest in higher priced homes as well.

Median and Average Sales Prices

What’s still declining?  Why, it’s the median and average sales prices, of course.  With foreclosures and short sales so common, we can expect that these will remain low and possibly go lower before this is all over.  However, these homes are selling very well and so are not clogging up the market.  Non-distressed homes are still selling also, but they have to be priced right.  The median sales price is now $167,900, a 20% reduction from last year and a 6% reduction from last month’s median price of $178,000.  The average sales price has now slipped to $200,055, a 22% reduction from last December and a 7% fall from November’s average price of $215,913.

Pending Contracts

Pending contracts dropped again this month by 9.6% from last month and 23% from last year.  However, I noticed something interesting that is keeping me from being too down about this.  In November of 2008 there were 677 pending contracts.  However, in December of 2008 there were 775 home sales units, about 100 more than were forecast from the previous month’s pending contracts.  In 2007 it was the opposite.  November had 910 pending contracts, but December only had 753 sales.  I don’t know the reason behind these numbers, but what is clear is that sales can not be entirely predicted by the number of pending contracts the month before.  Still, this will be a category to keep an eye on.

Active Listings and New Listings

Both active listings and new listings decreased since last year and last month.  For active listings we see a 4.6% decrease over last month and a 12.4% decrease over last year.  New listings have declined 7% since last month and 5.6% over last year.  Yet sales units increased.  This is definitely moving us in the right direction and will be quite encouraging if it continues.

As of December 2008 we have 7,627 active listings on the market, which leaves us a 9.8 months’ supply of homes at the pace that December’s sales were going.  Certainly much better than last month’s 12.6 months’ supply.

In the Trenches

Numbers are great, but it is what’s happening in the trenches right now that spells success or failure in the near future.  I am personally experiencing a great deal of buyer traffic.  I have 3 buyers closing on their homes this month alone.  I am getting a lot more traffic on my listings, which, by the way, are all short sales at this point.  I am getting contracts on two of my listings this week.  So I see things picking up quite a bit.

Banks are starting to get it together when it comes to approving short sales.  See Are Bigger Banks Starting to “Get It”?  Even though the process is still taking some time, they are in the end producing more positive results, which is vital if they want to keep buyers coming after short sales.  Bank negotiators are displaying, for the most part, a willingness to partner with the Realtor listing the home to produce a positive outcome.

Will this continue?  I hope so.  Good deals are still plentiful and it’s prime buying season.  A lot of this depends on how many sellers decide to get in the mix.  Stay tuned…

Technorati Tags: Arizona, banks, distressed properties, foreclose, foreclosure, Foreclosures, investors, real estate market report, real estate sales, sales volume, short sale, Short sales, tucson, tucson real estate, Tucson real estate market, Tucson real estate market report, Tucson short sale